WASHINGTON - As veteran members of the Senate contemplate the future, they find themselves pondering a question memorably and musically posed by the Clash: Should I stay or should I go?
The answers have so far been mixed, with three senior senators - Kent Conrad of North Dakota, a Democrat; Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, a Republican; and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent - announcing in recent days that they will take the exit ramp when their terms are up.
Two others - Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana, and Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida - made it clear that they intended to seek re-election despite potentially bruising races.
Other incumbents are being monitored for signs of their intent. Are they raising money and hiring staff members to prepare for another run? Or does a lack of political activity and a refusal to commit mean that they will bow out gracefully rather than endure a grueling campaign that could bring primary and general election challenges?
Democrats on the watch list include Senators Daniel K. Akaka of Hawaii, Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Jim Webb of Virginia. Among Republicans, who have only 10 seats to defend in 2012 compared with 23 for Democrats, party operatives and analysts are keeping their eyes on Senators John Ensign of Nevada and Jon Kyl of Arizona.
It used to be relatively rare that senators walked away from their exclusive club and from the perks and privilege conferred by membership. But remaining in the Senate now entails months of fund-raising, a steady glad-handing of often disgruntled voters and a harsh media environment - often with no guarantee of a return ticket to Capitol Hill.
"It is a personal judgment really," said Mr. Lieberman, who announced that it was time to move on after 40 years in public service, 15 statewide elections, a vice-presidential run on the Democratic ticket and an abbreviated presidential bid of his own.
Mr. Lieberman, who was in serious danger of being squeezed from the right and from the left had he sought re-election, said he still found the Senate a place where, despite heightened partisanship, lawmakers could succeed on the basis of personal relationships. He concedes, however, that it can be quite different on the campaign trail.
"There is no question that certainly the campaigns are more costly, more negative, more personally demanding in that sense, and I am sure that is a factor for people," he said. "I don't think it was decisive for me."
Mr. Conrad, who also faced a tough fight but said he was advised by strategists that he could prevail, found himself weighing the thought of raising money and campaigning full time against taking on the federal debt and energy independence in the next two years.
"That made it very easy," Mr. Conrad said. "I want to spend my time working on those things and not just spending it on all the effort that goes into a re-election campaign."
The rise of the Tea Party and a generally foul political mood means re-election is no longer a slam dunk for veteran incumbents. Four senior senators were defeated last year, and a handful of others - including two Democrats, Harry Reid of Nevada and Patty Murray of Washington, and a Republican, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska - survived close calls.
Democrats head into 2012 with twice as many seats to defend as Republicans, and some incumbents are in territory that proved unfriendly in the 2010 midterms. Mr. Kohl, for instance, would be seeking a fifth term in Wisconsin, where Senator Russ Feingold was beaten and Republicans picked up House seats.
Mr. Webb could find himself back up against George Allen, the Republican incumbent he narrowly defeated in 2006, and Virginia has taken a turn against Democrats since President Obama carried it in 2008.
In Nebraska, Mr. Nelson, a two-term senator and former governor, faces a potential backlash against his vote for the health care law and for his support of other elements of the Obama agenda, even though he has worked assiduously to showcase his independence.
Other Democrats are making clear that they will not duck what could be a tough fight. The other Senator Nelson - Bill, from Florida - announced last Wednesday that he was definitely going to run, in a state where he is currently the only Democrat holding statewide office.
"My brand of politics is also where Florida is," Mr. Nelson told a group of reporters and editors, predicting that Mr. Obama could also carry the state again.
The fact that 2012 is a presidential year could change the environment for Democrats, with Mr. Obama's re-election campaign presumably able to turn out party voters who sat out the midterm elections and contributed to Democratic losses.
But it isn't just Democrats who are on the bubble.
Mr. Ensign of Nevada, who is caught up in an ethics scandal, said a few days ago that he anticipated a tough re-election, and he could always quit. Senator Orrin Hatch, a six-term Utah Republican, has said he is running for re-election. But his former colleague, Robert F. Bennett, was pushed aside by conservative forces last year, and Mr. Hatch could face the same threat.
In Indiana, Mr. Lugar, who helped steer the Obama administration's nuclear arms treaty through the lame-duck session of Congress, acknowledged that he could run into Tea Party resistance. But he is forging ahead. "I've been fortunate to have very good health and spirits," he said. "I'm grateful for that. I don't take it for granted, but nonetheless, I'm excited about what I'm doing."
The question is how many of his colleagues up for re-election are similarly excited.
By CARL HULSE
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